Tuesday, January 15, 2008

The Death of the Electric Utility Industry- Part Two

So, here is the scenario for the demise of central station electricity power grids. Many of the key elements are already visible. First you have climbing electric rates. Today, no one is predicting a decrease in electric rates. In fact no one is predicting stabilization of electric rates in the near future.

Next as central station power production rates climb, costs for alternative power systems keep going down. Innovations in wind turbine design, solar photo-voltaic output and other alternate electricity systems continue to drive down the costs of delivering power to your house from these choices. And, the majority of these systems are designed to work right at your house. No more buried cable or over head power lines for residential development. Bye Bye wires companies. No more distribution meters on homes for local distribution companies, adios distribution companies.

Of course this isn’t going to happen tomorrow, but the trends are there. Today the driving expense for wholesale power costs are power plants and transmission grids. These two features of the electric utility industry are also the most damaging to the environment. Witness the reduction in the number of proposed coal fired power plants as investors and consumer re-evaluate their roles in a climate change environment. Take away the residential load and what happens? Poof, now all that’s left is business and industrial loads.

Here too the trend is moving to disbursed generation facilities. Part of this movement is to improve reliability and part is a direct response to increasing rates and the lack of control that businesses feel over electric utility rate increases. The Y2K scare drove many industries to set up back up power systems that were under their control, just in case. So, many facilities have already done some of the planning to be grid free.

What can you do about all of this. Get informed. Find out how solar and wind might work at your house. Use existing tools to calculate what it would take for you to get off the grid. Even if you choose not to make the plunge, like me, you will at least understand your energy appetite and be able to have some control over your own climate change emissions. Here are some sites to get you started with your quest.

For innovations in wind energy see- http://www.getsmartenergy.com/

For help sizing your photovoltaic system see- http://www.realgoodssolar.com/

For help reducing your home energy use see- http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-and-you/reduce.html

I like electric utilities, really I do. I’m not ready to do this stuff by myself. I want a team of lineman ready to help get the lights back on after a storm. I want an office of skilled engineers designing a safe and reliable system to keep my home running. What I don’t want is an industry wide arrogance about individual energy choices that assumes central station power generation is the only economical way to go. That may be true today, but tomorrow will be here sooner than many utility executives can imagine.

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